3.7 In the following sections, we provide explanations for the most significant new policies announced in this Budget and their fiscal implications. We focus on those measures with the largest direct or indirect fiscal impacts, those with complex interactions with other policy, or those that are particularly uncertain. 2.51 Our forecast for CPI inflation is lower than the Bank’s https://africa-gold-capital-investment.org/ forecast and in line with other forecasters this year but higher in 2025 and 2026, likely reflecting the impact of this Budget. Our unemployment projections are significantly lower than the Bank’s forecast and other forecasters.
Measures with highly uncertain costings
The seasonally adjusted SA Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose by 1.9 points to 45.7 in June, up from 43.8 in May. Despite the improvement, the PMI has remained below the 50-point mark for the second consecutive month. (32) National Accounts taxes are a narrower measure than public sector current receipts and are more comparable over longer historical periods as they exclude public sector gross operating surplus, interest and dividend receipts, and other non-tax receipts. At this event we have included forecasts for the extra funding given to the National Wealth Fund (NWF). In our https://africa-gold-capital-investment.org/ forecasts we will, as with the NWF at this Budget, ensure that all new financial investments are costed rigorously, with forecasts that recognise the losses that some investments will make. B.15 Some changes in asset value do involve transactions (usually a transfer to or from the creditor), in particular any write offs of loans and policy changes to student loans.
October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook – Emissions trading scheme carbon price forecast
- Prior to 2010 we compare fiscal events on the basis of the average policy-driven increase in borrowing over the forecast years.
- However, the cost of 35,000 additional state sector pupils would be around £0.3 billion, based on a £7,690 per pupil cost in England.20 The actual additional cost to the Government would depend on a wider set of factors.
- Overall, the costing estimates that as a result of the policy in the steady state there will be around 35,000 (6 per cent) fewer private school pupils, reflecting both leavers and, primarily, fewer new joiners.
- In the UK, the increase in the tax take was particularly steep in the most recent period after the pandemic, which has closed much of the difference with the ‘other G7’ average.
- Further crystallisation of liabilities on the government balance sheet together with governance risk and poor sentiment in financial markets could impair debt sustainability and exert downside pressure on the sovereign’s credit ratings.
Inflation-linked bonds, represented by the FTSE/JSE CILI, https://coinmarketcap.com/ outperformed nominal bonds (FTSE/JSE ALBI), even though both categories posted negative returns.
Economic outlook
Easing Eskom’s debt burden requires profound https://www.cftc.gov/LearnAndProtect/AdvisoriesAndArticles/fraudadv_forex.html change by improving governance and cracking down on corruption and theft, but inaction is a danger given vested interests in the status quo. South Africa (BB+/Stable) can expect only modest near-term relief from the chronic electricity crisis with the declaration of a national state of disaster and appointment of a new electricity minister in the latest cabinet reshuffle. The cost of the now daily blackouts may be running at around USD 50m a day, according to the South African Reserve Bank. The conference has continued to emphasise the importance of interdisciplinary approaches (such as actuarial modelling, for example) and evidence-based policymaking in driving Africa’s economic transformation and fostering sustainable development pathways.
Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2020
The outlook for productivity growth remains our most important and uncertain forecast judgement. The effects of subdued investment, the energy price shock, and Brexit compound the ongoing weakness seen since the financial crisis. In this Budget, the temporary demand effects of the significant net fiscal loosening and https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/forex.asp the supply-side impacts of the tax and public investment increases are also uncertain. And the financial crisis, pandemic, and energy price shock showed that unforeseen external shocks can have a large impact on the UK.
Eskom estimates that solar panels with a cumulative generating capacity of 5,500 MW have now been installed on the roofs of South Africa’s malls, office blocks, warehouses and households. Of that amount, roughly 2,100 MW was added in the last year alone—the vast majority of which is for self-use as the country doesn’t yet have a national feed-in policy,” Foreignpolicy.com added. Workers in the energy-intensive manufacturing industry appear particularly vulnerable to losing their jobs. Low levels of load shedding don’t affect the labour market strongly, but high levels did,” the duo observed. Seven of the 10 sectors tracked by Statistics South Africa registered growth in the latest three-month period, as the economy benefited from an unbroken stretch without power cuts for the first time in years. The factory activity, however, slumped in August 2024, indicating that business conditions remain highly volatile in key sectors.
Market expectations for 2025 oil prices have ranged between 68 and 84 dollars a barrel since the March forecast, compared to 71 dollars a barrel in our central forecast. 2.37 Relative to our March forecast, we expect stronger nominal earnings growth of 4.7 per cent in 2024 and 3.6 per cent in 2025, 1.1 and 1.6 percentage points higher, respectively (Chart 2.13, left panel). Nominal earnings growth over the first half of 2024 has fallen less than expected in our March forecast, as pay settlements have remained sticky despite falling inflation. Alongside this, Budget policies raise earnings growth by 0.2 and 0.6 percentage points respectively, in 2024 and 2025 but lower it slightly from 2026.
Grocery retailer Shoprite recently reported spending $28 million in six months on diesel generators to keep its lights and refrigerators on,” Foreignpolicy.com reported. Eskom managed not to implement power cuts in more than 150 days, since late March, after a big improvement in the performance of its fleet of mainly coal-fired power stations. Apart from increased electricity availability at Eskom coal stations, renewable energy projects operated by independent producers have also delivered more electricity over the past year. The utility’s CEO Dan Marokane said Eskom should be able to say early 2025 when “load-shedding at the chronic level that it is behind us,” with an additional 2.5 gigawatts of generation capacity coming online in the next few months. The retrospective RisCura South African monthly Market Commentary, offers investors insights across key segments including the local markets and economic trends to gain clarity on economic indicators, asset performance, and market dynamics.
The workshop concluded that there was significant potential to ensure that South Africa’s energy transition is just while simultaneously fostering responsible national economic growth. To conclude, the Eastern bloc Eastern Europe is set to experience a landscape of modest economic recovery characterised by a stable median GDP growth rate, indicative of a recovery phase across most nations. However, the region grapples with significant challenges, primarily due to escalating sovereign debts that exert fiscal and monetary constraints, posing risks to sustained economic stability. The country’s debt-to-GDP ratio, hovering around the 50% mark, is indicative of substantial investments in infrastructure and energy.
As a result, the rand depreciated by 2.6% against the US dollar and 1.6% against the pound sterling, while its decline against the euro was more modest at 0.1%. Annex A covers the policy decisions since November and Annex B provides an update on major balance sheet interventions. We have also needed to delay the publication of some of our usual databases and supplementary tables, to place some of the usual EFO tables online, and to remove a small number of tables containing detailed breakdowns that were not produced in this forecast. (84) In addition, ONS methodology means that the imputed earnings on assets differ from the actual earnings that affect the balance sheet, and from the valuation of gilts held in the schemes. (82) However, as a portion of loans will not be repaid, in our forecasts we include estimates of write offs to recognise this. (72) An error was identified in the net liabilities calculation used in the March 2024 forecast of PSNFL.